How many points do Cittadella need to avoid relegation? It’s a tricky guess.

Following Cittadella’s 3-2 comeback win against Reggina on Saturday, the Granata move up to 13th in the standings, putting them on 30 points after 25 games.

This is a big step for Edoardo Gorini’s side, given the poor start to the season they had. Cittadella were sitting in 19th place at the end of 2022, fresh off of four straight losses, and a team looking a shadow of their former self. Fast forward to today, and Cittadella has gotten 11 points out of a possible 18 since the start of the new year. The new signings of the winter transfer window, particularly Giovanni Crociata and Alessandro Salvi have given the Granata a new sense of hope in this season.

As much progress Cittadella has made so far, the job is far from over. Lots of changes in the table is still a possibility, and it’s likely Cittadella can finish as high as playoffs, and as low as relegation.

With 13 games left in Serie B, Cittadella have a two point cushion over 16th place Como in an extremely tight table. While only five points from playoffs, they are also seven points from last place Cosenza, who have collected 23 points so far – a high number at this point in the season.

Like in all leagues–and even in Serie B–the points needed to avoid getting relegated is normally 40 points. A team in any league with 40 points after 38 games is unlikely (but still possible) to get relegated.

This season in Serie B, however, will be much different.

Given the competitiveness that we’ve seen in the league this season, it’s risky to assume 40 points will be enough to avoid the drop. A much safer target for Cittadella should be at least 46 points.

Since the league cut the number of teams down to 20 teams, 46 points has always been enough to get you over the line. Even when there were more games played prior, 46 points would still be a reasonable goal in order to survive.

If the math is true once again, Cittadella would need to obtain 16 more points in their remaining 13 games in order to guarantee safety. A simpler way to put it would be five more wins and a draw for Gorini’s side.

The Granata currently have seven more home games and six more away games. Gorini and co still have to play promotion contenders Genoa, Bari, and Südtirol, who are all in the top four as of today. Other important head-to-head games include Brescia, Cosenza, Benevento, and Como–all of whom are below Cittadella.

Maybe Cittadella will be fine with less than 46 points, or maybe they’ll need more come the end of the season. The bottom line is that Cittadella have done good so far in getting outside the relegation zone. Now, it’s all about staying away from it as much as possible, which means getting wins against teams who you SHOULD be beating.

Top Photo: Massimo Felicetti